Yudhoyono's Challenge
The War on Terror has seen a number of nations in transition from enemy to ally of the United States. In Afghanistan and Iraq, despotic rulers were removed, and following first every free elections new leaders have expressed support for continued U.S. involvement and assistance in their evolution toward democratic success, even if they aren’t pro-American in the fuller sense of the term. Elsewhere, there are states in transition from foe to friend. For some, the War on Terror has provided the necessity for such a change. For others the War on Terror also presents a challenge to making the transition.
Indonesia’s newly elected President Yudhoyono, faces many significant challenges in his efforts to improve relations with the U.S. And while he has found success thus far, some of these challenges are worth review.
Foremost among the challenges facing Yudhoyono, leading the world’s largest Muslim population while allied with the U.S. in the War on Terror. This is in no means an indictment of Indonesia’s Muslim population, in large part one of the more liberal in the world. Rather it is due to the existence of Jemaah Islamiyat (J.I.), an al-Qaeda linked terror organization in Indonesia. The prosecution of the War on Terror will not cease so long as this group remains a threat, and for Yudhoyono it remains both a political challenge and a tactical challenge to eliminate J.I.
A constraint earned prior to Yudhoyono’s election is also found in Indonesia’s history of military abuse of power and influence. While not limited to the post Suharto era, Indonesian military forces have not shown restraint in their efforts to quash unrest and independence movements among the various islands that make up the nation post Suharto. Added to the political might the military has maintained historically, it is no wonder that few are eager to see any aggressive action from Jakarta. In many respects, the history of corruption and abuse of power not only limits Yudhoyono’s ability to confront terrorist, it also limits his ability to move rapidly in other reform initiatives. For that reason, I hold that it will not be during Yudhoyono’s presidency that that foreign viewers consider many of Indonesia’s issues resolved. How’s that? Frankly, it’ll take a few turns at the ballot, and significant reform in the command and control of the armed forces to ensure outsiders that the historical relationship between the military power structure and the civilian government are no longer symbiotic.
Additionally, Yudhoyono must revitalize the economy of Indonesia. The nation faces significant infrastructure, education and banking difficulties that limit investors’ willingness to seek out opportunities in Indonesia. Indonesia has also become a net oil importer rather exporter, and coupled with government pricing controls this has severely limited the positives that many nations have found while oil prices have soared.
Yudhoyono’s economic policy’s, termed "pro-growth, pro-job, pro-poor", are essentially aimed at addressing the need for greater transparency in business and encouraging foreign investment to reduce unemployment and stem corruption. Again, however, time and frankness will be the immediate determinants of progress, more so than the resumption of talks such as the Trade and Investment Council. The one significant positive, although I’m hesitant to call it one, is in the rebuilding efforts following last December’s devastating tsunami. Both from an infrastructure perspective and in broader terms of addressing unemployment, the potential for a lift to the economy exist. If wise, Yudhoyono will work to ensure that the needed accountability is given for all foreign aid received, as this may go help to establish some level of confidence in his programs of reform.
Yudhoyono is an optimist. In that regard, he and President Bush are akin. In his visit with President Bush, Yudhoyono told Bush that the economic reforms are underway and that his military is undergoing the fundamental changes needed to end its history of transgressions. Bush believed him - "[t]he president told me he's in the process of reforming the military, and I believe him."
From an outsiders view, it appears that they have cause for their optimism. Likewise both are moving with relative caution, which I would applaud. Given the significance of the Strait of Malacca to international shipping, and Chinese efforts (link includes map of shipping routes) to extend their influence in the region, the U.S. will need an optimist and a strong batch of allies. More so, we’ll need a free and economically stable Indonesia to thwart the violent tactics, and ideology, of al-Qaeda from taking further root in Indonesia. Along with Australia, India and Japan, the U.S. should be both an economic and military friend to Indonesia.
[Originally posted at The Fourth Rail.]
