Watching the Perfect Storm Develop
In his Washington Times column, Arnaud de Borchgrave begins by asking us to "Imagine a world where Russia and the European Union of 25 nations, and Russia and China, and the EU and China, all find more in common with each other than with the United States." Frequent readers of this space will recognize that I do that indeed. The trouble being that it isn't entirely an effort of the imagination, and while de Borchgrave says, "Unimaginable, you correctly say," he goes on to provide a portion of the evidence of the potential anti-U.S. entente.
In the opinion of this blogger, de Borchgrave only nipped at the possibility, intimating rather than announcing the potential threat. I’ve blogged on many occasions my concerns regarding Russia’s support of Iran’s nuclear technology development efforts, the potential (almost certain) lifting of the EU’s arms embargo on China, on Russia’s cozying up to China militarily and economically, and the view of China, Russia and the EU that they are the counter balance to the U.S. in the world today. Here, I’ll expand, hopefully, on de Borchgrave’s column.
Russia and the EU
De Borchgrave notes that in Brussels the President made it clear to the EU-3 that it was their responsibility to "quash Iran's nuclear ambitions and the United States would not negotiate directly" with Iran. To the European’s it was absurd "before Mr. Bush arrived. And it was still deemed absurd after he left." This comes with the recognition that Europe is not equipped with the ability to change Iran’s view, through sanctions as a potential penalty or through improved trade as a benefit. Russia, even farther removed from the American position, remains satisfied that the Iranian’s have no intention of developing nuclear weapons, just signed the agreement to supply fuel for the Bushehr nuclear power plant which has recently been completed with Russian guidance and has sold missile technology to Iran.
Effectively this is Russia and the EU having more in common, even if only on this one issue, with each other than with the U.S. There are, of course, other issues.
China and the EU
The EU, as de Borchgrave notes, has effectively done all they could to supply China under the terms of the embargo. It is hard to imagine a course of events that will prevent the end of the embargo for the EU believes "China is headed for superpowerdom in the foreseeable future." Whether it is in 2080 or 2010 doesn’t matter to Europe for they see in China, what they don’t see in the U.S., an expanding market for their products. Cha-ching.
The EU believes that U.S. civilian and military technology transfers to China (thank you Mr. Clinton) have aided the Chinese military and, of course, the U.S. economy. Can’t have that. And despite the warning volley from the House in its 411 – 3 vote to end technology transfers to Europe if the embargo is lifted, it remains all but done.
Russia and China
De Borchgrave notes that the majority of China’s defense imports come from Russia, he doesn’t note the increased military cooperation, the improving economic ties or China’s offer to purchase or finance the theft of Yukos’ assets under the hand of Putin. The most striking similarities between China and Russia have come in recent months when Putin has stepped back from the idea of liberal democracy and more toward the central authority one would expect from Russia’s history.
The Perfect Storm Today?
No. But the potential remains, and despite de Borchgrave’s unwillingness to pointedly admit it, the likelihood is growing. Driven by Europe’s continued consolidation under the EU, their greed and abject moral abyss when presented with threats China and Russia are emboldened by the prospect of dethroning the U.S. as the world’s sole superpower. Additionally, the UN serves to enable the potential triumvirate through obfuscation and delay in addressing critical security threats to the United States while giving additional unearned or deserved authority and voice to those who see international sovereignty and will as more significant than that of the United States.
While the storm will not complete its development tomorrow, it should be clear to those concerned for the future of our nation that we must continue to support the advance of democracies in parts of the world that have not historically led the fight against any of the three great evils we faced over the previous century. It may be that our newly developing allies and supporters in the war on terror will serve as a counter balance against the new wave of socialist grabbing at any and all tethers in hopes of being important, powerful and most significantly, not following the lead of the U.S.
This post has been thrown into the traffic jam, where technical difficulties are the current Perfect Storm.
UPDATE: Arthur Chrenkoff and Richard North offer a look at the EU's efforts to become a military superpower. They agree that it is unlikely, despite the big talk and the ambitions of those in Brussels. It strikes me that the effort also serves the purpose of enhancing the image of Europe as an arms provider, which may succeed. But as both recognize, the infusion of former Soviet states into the EU makes not only foreign policy difficult, it makes military policy and defense nearly impossible. Unless it is truly defense. The real threat in Europe isn't a weapon, its the values or lack thereof.
