Medicare Drug Benefit Cost and the Washington Post
Projections for Medicare Drug Benefit cost have more than doubled, if the Washington Post is correct in their statement that it could cost $1.2 trillion for the coming ten years. And despite the number of other reports now using that figure, it doesn't appear that the Post has it right.
The Post, at best, failed to grasp the nature of the subject matter, and in doing so didn't recognize the vast difference between a projection based on 10 years of full (and growing) participation and the initial projections based on 8 years of full participation with 2 years of only limited availability. At worst, the Post reported the $1.2 trillion cost compared to earlier estimates of $534 billion with the full knowledge that the $534 billion factored in the savings to the Fed associated with the initial projection, while the $1.2 trillion does not. That figure would have more accurately been reported as $720 billion.
Is there a difference between $534 billion and $720 billion? Of course, but given the two additional years of full participation, it is relatively minor. It is effectively yields a 9% increase in cost, and given the growing base of participants included in the planning, that strikes me as a reasonable number. The same would hold true for a comparison between the $400 billion projection from 2003 (a 28% increase with 3 added years of full participation).
And just so we are clear... I am not, nor have I ever been an advocate of the program, although I much prefer it to the single provider option the Democrats prefer.
